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Main Scenarios
1. Bearish Scenario (Wave C)
– We are currently in corrective Wave C within a larger downtrend,
– Rejection from the top suggests the completion of Wave B and the probable beginning of Wave C,
– If price breaks down to reach the 1.618 or 2.618 Fibonacci retracement levels, this would confirm the end of Wave B and initiate the main downtrend, targeting $44,000 – $37,000,
– Key Bearish Targets
1. $42,341.97
2. $39,039.61
2. Bullish Scenario (Ending Diagonal)
– The current pattern might be forming an Ending Diagonal,
– Price must hold the trendline support (a wick below is acceptable, but a strong breakdown would invalidate this),
– BTC could continue upwards toward the 0.61 – 0.7 Fibonacci levels (~$70,300 – $71,700),
– A rejection at this level might test the trendline again,
– If Wave 4 remains intact, we could see a final rally to a new all-time high, targeting $77,000 – $79,300,
Trading Strategy
3. Risk-Reward for Short Positions
– Monitor for a bounce from support up to the $70,300 – $71,700 zone for a potential short entry,
– The intensity of the decline after rejection will indicate whether a bearish trend is forming or if this is just a corrective Wave 4,
Invalidation
4. Short Position Invalidation
– Short positions would be invalidated if the price breaks above the previous all-time high,
Conclusion
5. Critical Level
– BTC is at a critical point:
– Bearish Scenario: If it rejects around $70,300 – $71,700, expect a continuation of the downtrend toward $44,000 – $37,000,
– Bullish Scenario: If the Ending Diagonal holds, BTC could see a minor rally toward $77,000 – $79,300 before a potential decline,
– Confirmation needed:
1. Break below the lower trendline for bearish confirmation,
2. Break above $71,700 for more bullish movement.